Trade Flow Analysis

  • H1 April Trade Flows: As Bad As It Gets

    Tuesday, 16 April, 2019

    The sugar market oversupply is as bad as we can remember; 5m tonnes surplus in the next 12 months. The market consensus is that sugar prices should be transitioning higher in 2019. We fear the market is so oversupplied that prices may need to trade lower in the short/medium term. Read this analysis…

  • H2 March Trade Flows: Impact of Thai Remelt

    Monday, 1 April, 2019

    The raws Trade Flows are in surplus; the whites now looks more balanced. This is a result of the low whites flat price and whites premium, which reduces supply to the world market. Thai mills will be an important swing factor – if whites returns improve they can remelt raws to refined sugar. tf1.jpg Read this analysis…

  • H1 March Trade Flows: Large Raws Surplus

    Thursday, 14 March, 2019

    The raws market is heavily oversupplied in 2019. This is likely to pressure the flat price and spreads in H1’19. The whites market is also in surplus, though not as severely. Read this analysis…

  • End of February 2019 Trade Flow Report

    Friday, 1 March, 2019

    The sugar world market remains over supplied in 2019. We are still projecting Indian exports of 5m tonnes this season, but this is dependent on government action in the coming days. As we reduce the amount of raw sugar Thai mill process into white sugar this season, the Thai raw sugar surplus could begin to weigh on the physical premiums. Read this analysis…

  • Trade Flow Analysis H2 January 2019

    Monday, 4 February, 2019

    Even though the market is oversupplied in 2019, we expect stocks will fall this year. The large Raws Q1’19 surplus should be resolved via the March expiry. The Whites flows continue in a surplus and more origins could become World Market suppliers if incentivised. tf1.jpg Read this analysis…

  • Trade Flow Analysis H1 January 2019

    Thursday, 17 January, 2019

    The raw and white sugar markets remain oversupplied in 2019. The raw sugar oversupply depends on whether Brazilian mills make sugar or ethanol. The whites surplus depends on whether India exports its full 5m tonne quota or falls short.   Introduction If you would like to read a guide on how to interpret the Trade Flows, please see the section 'How to use the Trade Flows' at the bottom of the report.   Read this analysis…

  • Trade Flow Analysis December 2018

    Wednesday, 19 December, 2018

    The sugar market is oversupplied in 2019. The raw sugar market is in cumulative surplus of 3m tonnes across the next 12 months. The whites market is also heavily in surplus, with this oversupply concentrated on the lower quality whites market.   Read this analysis…

  • Trade Flow Analysis 1H November 2018

    Wednesday, 14 November, 2018

    The sugar market is oversupplied in 2019. The raw sugar market is in cumulative surplus of 3m tonnes across the next 12 months. The whites market is also heavily in surplus, with this oversupply concentrated on the lower quality whites market.   Read this analysis…

  • Trade Flow Analysis 2H September 2018 - Focus on the Raw Sugar Market

    Tuesday, 18 September, 2018

    The raw sugar market will remain oversupplied for at least the next 6 months. Key risks to this view are a poor end to cane crushing in CS Brazil and unexpectedly strong global raws demand. If India subsidises raw sugar exports this would be negative for price.   Read this analysis…

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