Latest Market Analysis

  • March Whites Expiry – Less delivered but still bearish

    Friday, 15 February, 2019

    The expiry had a smaller tonnage delivered than what we believe is available. Both the spread and flat price had to trade lower to ensure a smaller delivery. Perhaps showing what the May and August contracts will need to do given the surplus environment. Read this analysis…

  • Indonesia Refineries Raws Import Permit Released

    Friday, 15 February, 2019

    Indonesia government has issued 1.4mmt of raws import permits to refiners for FH’19. The late issuance has led to slow Thai raws nominations. The special license to the domestic mills has yet to be announced and, depending on timings and volume, could add further pressure to the Thai raws premium. Read this analysis…

  • Brazil – Too Early to Tell

    Thursday, 14 February, 2019

    We stand at 552mmt for cane and 27.3mmt of sugar output in 19/20. Even though we faced a severe dry spell in the past couple of months, weather forecast has proven too volatile. Read this analysis…

  • March Raws Expiry - Supply from the Americas

    Thursday, 14 February, 2019

    Western Hemisphere raw sugar is available for delivery. The expiry looks to be attractive from a receiver’s point of view. The spread is currently indicating a large delivery and we could see Brazilian and Central Americans on the tape Read this analysis…

  • Indian Exports Reaching Far and Wide

    Friday, 8 February, 2019

    We are beginning to see the effects of Indian subsidised sugar. Raws has been shipped to Bangladesh and Malaysia, directly competing with Brazilian VHP. White sugar is still travelling as far as West Africa to find a home. Read this analysis…

  • A Look to 2020 – Thai Physical Premiums to Rise as Production Falls

    Thursday, 7 February, 2019

    Thai production in 2019/20 is expected to drop considerably. Furthermore, bunker costs are likely to rise in 2020, increasing Thais competitiveness vs Brazilian VHP. As such, 2020 Thai physical premiums could strengthen considerably from current levels. Read this analysis…

  • Mexico Threatens NAFTA Trade

    Wednesday, 6 February, 2019

    Following large farmer protests, Mexico is considering restricting American HFCS imports. This could lead to a reduced sugar flow from Mexico to the US and the World Market. The USA may need to increase raw sugar imports from other origins; while the oversupply of American HFCS could worsen.   Mexican Average Domestic Price 1.jpg Read this analysis…

  • Brazil Container Exports

    Wednesday, 6 February, 2019

    Q4’18 data shows whites container exports at 445kmt – the lowest of the past 12 years; Whilst the reduction is in part due to EU competition into West Africa, CS Brazil also saw a significant reduction in sugar availability; Read this analysis…

  • Thailand – Continuation of Higher Raws Production

    Tuesday, 5 February, 2019

    Mills continue to produce more raw sugar as competition for whites exports increases. The sugar yields performance has increased but remains behind last year’s yields. If this trend continues then we could see our Thai sugar production number decreasing. Read this analysis…

  • India Crush at Record Pace

    Monday, 4 February, 2019

    India will definitely produce surplus sugar in 2019. In fact, sugar production will probably exceed the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s 30.7m tonne forecast. This means the next government will still need to solve chronic oversupply in 2019 and 2020. Read this analysis…

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