Latest Market Analysis

  • CS Brazil – Petrobras price policy under threat?

    Thursday, 18 April, 2019

    Increases in diesel prices are causing truckers to threat to make another general strike; The government is torn between the risk of another strike and Petrobras independence; Read this analysis…

  • CS Brazil – Hydrous Prices Up, Mills to Make Ethanol

    Thursday, 18 April, 2019

    CS will continue to focus on ethanol; Strength in energy market and rally in ethanol domestic prices opens the arbitrage in favour of the biofuel production; Read this analysis…

  • May 2019 No.11 Expiry

    Tuesday, 16 April, 2019

    Raw sugar availability for the K’19 expiry is high. Cost of carry for CS Brazil and Central America is around 25pts. Given the recent strength in the K/N spread, we may already have a receiver. Read this analysis…

  • Rangebound Market – The Floor

    Monday, 15 April, 2019

    The market remains range bound between 12-13.5c/lb in 2019. Physical buying and a lack of spec interest in adding to shorts have supported the market at the bottom of the range. We worry that the floor to the market is less robust than the ceiling. Read this analysis…

  • Thailand – Record Sugar Production

    Monday, 15 April, 2019

    Thailand will produce a record amount of sugar this season, exceeding last year’s output. Raw sugar availability in 2019 will also be a record and will outstrip regional demand. We still think 1m tonnes could be carried into 2020, with a further 800k tonnes seeking a home in 2019. Read this analysis…

  • Rangebound Market - The Ceiling

    Friday, 12 April, 2019

    The market remains rangebound between 12-13.5c/lb in 2019. Significant producer pricing weighs heavily on a well-stocked market. We believe a breakout below 12c/lb is more likely than a rally – but this may take time. Read this analysis…

  • April WASDE: Small Changes in Production

    Friday, 12 April, 2019

    The WASDE has reduced the domestic sugar crops; this is likely to result in an adjustment of domestic demand. Alternatively, Mexico may be given a 38kmt allowance into the US market. Mexico still needs to export 1mmt to the world market.  Read this analysis…

  • Sudanese Coup Affecting Whites Offtake?

    Friday, 12 April, 2019

    The Sudanese President has been overthrown; borders are shut until further notice. Whites offtake from Sudan, normally reliable, could be disrupted in the short term. This could make receiving the upcoming May expiry even more unattractive. Read this analysis…

  • China 19/20: Increasing Production Continues

    Friday, 12 April, 2019

    Farmers are now sowing the cane and beet for next season with a contracted price similar to this season. We think sugar production will increase by 300kmt or 2.8% in the 19/20 season. This would mean less room for imported sugar or destocking. Read this analysis…

  • China: Smuggling Clampdown Adds to White Surplus

    Thursday, 11 April, 2019

    Sugar smuggling into China has fallen sharply in recent months. This was once the largest flow of white sugar in the world. East Asian demand for white sugar will therefore be lower in 2019, which is negative for Thai cash values and the No.5 futures market. Read this analysis…

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