Latest Market Analysis

  • India 18/19 Crushing Off to a Strong Start

    Monday, 10 December, 2018

    India has had a record start to cane crushing. We forecast 34m tonnes sugar will be produced this season, 2m tonnes more than last year. Stocks increasing rapidly could begin to pressure mills into exporting. lma1.png Read this analysis…

  • Brazil | CS Production: UNICA 2H November Estimates

    Friday, 7 December, 2018

    Figures for the 2H of November should be published in the upcoming days; Unfavourable weather is thought to have caused 4 days of stoppages; However, due to the postponement of the end of the season by several mills, crush should come around 15.13mmt – similar to last season; Read this analysis…

  • Implications of a Chinese Smuggling Slowdown

    Wednesday, 5 December, 2018

    We are reducing our smuggling demand to 2m tonnes in 18/19, from 2.5m tonnes in 17/18, pressuring regional refined premiums. Demand into smuggling routes has waned, despite a smuggle arb at $150-170 range. This could push Thai mills to reduce their remelt, increasing raws availability and increasing the far east raws surplus in 2019. Read this analysis…

  • Will China Provide a Direct Cane Subsidy?

    Thursday, 29 November, 2018

    China could be about to subsidize farmers through direct cane payments. To pay for this we think they might de-stock around 1.5m tonnes of sugar from state reserves. To ensure domestic price does not fall the government may reduce import volume and tighten border control – reducing world market demand by at least 1m tonnes. Read this analysis…

  • Brazil NNE | 2018/19 Ethanol Season

    Wednesday, 28 November, 2018

    Cumulative figures for NNE (North-Northeast) region have also been published this week; Cane crushing stands at 26.2mmt – 18% ahead yoy; So far, the season is off to a good start with cane quality being the highest of the past 10 years; However, this is not fully reflected in sugar production; Read this analysis…

  • Brazil | CS Production: UNICA 1H November Official

    Tuesday, 27 November, 2018

    Figures for the 1H of November were published this Tuesday; Once again the report showed mills postponing their end of the season due to rains; As a result, crushing came at 21.3mmt, higher than initially expected; Cumulative sugar production stands at 25.2mmt; Read this analysis…

  • Brazil | CS Production: UNICA 1H November Estimates

    Monday, 26 November, 2018

    For the 1H of November, we expect mills to keep pushing ethanol production; This is due the rainy period impacting operations and ATR levels; Besides, as field operations were hindered, it’s expected that most mills to have ended their crop by then; Official figures to be released tomorrow (27/11) 10h (Bz time).   Read this analysis…

  • Thailand – Sugar Overload in 2019

    Thursday, 22 November, 2018

    Thai sugar availability will be higher in 2019 than it was in 2018. This is despite cane availability falling as farmers switch to cassava. The reason is this year’s unsold sugar is being carried into next year. Read this analysis…

  • Indian Farm Support Challenged at WTO

    Wednesday, 21 November, 2018

    Australia has lodged a Counter-Notification Notice with the World Trade Organisation’s Agriculture Committee. This complaint does not cover the recent export quota or cane subsidy; we expect another WTO challenge later this year. By the time these issues are resolved through the WTO, we expect this year’s 5m tonnes Indian export quota will have been shipped. Read this analysis…

  • Chinese Farmers Keep Growing Cane for 19/20

    Wednesday, 21 November, 2018

    Guangxi’s 2018/19 provisional cane price has been set at RMB 490 /mt, RMB 10/mt lower y-o-y. We therefore think that sugar production should remain stable at 10.9m tonnes for the 2019/20 season. China will therefore remain in domestic deficit; imports and/or destocking will be required. Read this analysis…

Pages