Brazil Analysis

  • NNE | 2018/19 Season Start

    Wednesday, 31 October, 2018

    The beginning of the 2018/19 season is off to a good start, with cumulative crush until the 1H of October reaching 17.5mmt; Drier weather ahead of the season allowed sugar content  to rise, and ATR has been the highest of the past 7 seasons; Read this analysis…

  • CS Brazil | Crop Competition

    Wednesday, 3 October, 2018

    Low sugar prices registered this season will have a direct impact in cane prices – due to the structure of Consecana cane pricing methodology; Talks about areas shifting to other crops have started to emerge; Is this a cane reduction influence for CS Brazil? Read this analysis…

  • Brazil | CS 2018/19: Crop Revision

    Monday, 27 August, 2018

    Mills continue to push production mix as much as possible; And arbitrage remains favouring the biofuel production, giving no reason for sugar mix to go over 40% in any fortnight. We have reduced our sugar mix estimate down to 36.9%, resulting in sugar production of 27.3mmt; Read this analysis…

  • Carrying To March’19…

    Monday, 6 August, 2018

    The V8/H9 spread has widened enough to make carry operations attractive. Current stocks are the highest for three years, despite the ethanol heavy focus. We think at these levels, we could see up to 4mmt of sugar carried. Read this analysis…

  • Upcoming Critical Data

    Thursday, 19 July, 2018

    Although estimates abound, the size of the CS crop failure is unknown; We understand that due to cane age, lower cane field maintenance and the dry spell registered since February, TCH data from July onwards is expected to fall significantly; The question is, how big is the fall and its possible outcomes? In worst case scenario, CS could lose 1mmt of raws sugar availability; Read this analysis…

  • Production Mix Risk

    Wednesday, 4 July, 2018

    Hydrous prices have been falling as CS Brazilian mills maximise ethanol production; Last week, the prices came close to favouring sugar production again; How low would ethanol prices have to go in order to shift the mills’ production mix away from max ethanol? Read this analysis…

  • Brazil Analysis | CS 2018/19 Crop Revision

    Thursday, 7 June, 2018

    We are revising our crop estimate from 30.9mmt to 29.2mmt – this is almost 7mmt down from 2017/18. The lower sugar availability is due to a downgrade in both cane and sugar mix. Cane age, lack of proper maintenance in the cane fields and a dry spell are leading to mills revising their initial crop budgets. On top of this, a higher than expected flexibility for ethanol has proved possible. Read this analysis…

  • Brazil Analysis | Truck Drivers strike: No Crush

    Tuesday, 29 May, 2018

    Mills are stopping not only due to diesel shortage but food and other industrial inputs as well; By the end of today we reckon around 75% of CS mills could have stopped; Strikes are ending but there are still some road blocks and it will take between 3 to 5 days to normalize operations.   Read this analysis…

  • Brazil Analysis | Demand destruction?

    Friday, 18 May, 2018

    Otto Cycle and economic activity are directly linked; However, this year fuel demand could fall short of expectations; GDP forecast is being revised while gas stations are making sales in fuel prices to attract consumers; How will this impact hydrous demand? Read this analysis…

  • Brazil Analysis | CS Brazil Production - Official Figures 1H Apr

    Wednesday, 25 April, 2018

    UNICA figures were published today, in line with our estimates; A strong crush for the start of the season as a result of favourable weather saw 22mmt of cane processed; As expected, sugar mix was low indicating the willingness of the mills to favour ethanol production this season; Read this analysis…

Pages