Coronavirus and Sugar Consumption
March 20, 2020
The global sugar market has undergone many fluctuations and changes over the past few weeks as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. One area that we think has significantly changed is global sugar consumption.
- We have reduced our global sugar consumption estimate by nearly 2m tonnes this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.
- This means overall sugar consumption will now barely increase this year.
- We expect sugar consumption per capita to fall in 2020.
Consumption is Decreasing
- We have reduced our 2020 sugar consumption estimate by 5% in the following countries, which have imposed isolation or lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus.
Countries in Lockdown with an Estimated 5% Consumption Decrease
- This is due to the collapse in out-of-home food and drink consumption, and the difficulties faced in operating normal supply chains.
- The 5% reductions are a best-guess at this stage and are not wholly scientific.
- Further modifications may be required as we learn more information.
- We are likely to extend these reductions to other countries if/when they increase their isolation measures.
Global Consumption Growth is Below Population Growth
- This means overall consumption in the 2019/20 season will hardly increase.
- Before the coronavirus outbreak, we thought consumption would increase by 1% this year!
- At this early stage we are forecasting a rebound in consumption next year once the world reverts to normal. We will also keep this under review.
Global Sugar Consumption Not Increasing in 2019/2020
- Despite the reduction in consumption, sugar production in the 2019/20 season will still fall short of consumption by around 10m tonnes.
19/20: Still a Large Deficit
- You can stay up-to-date with all these changes using the Balance Sheet Changes page in the Interactive Data Section on Czapp.
- We will continue to report on market changes during this time.
Author: Ben Seed, Analyst