Latest Market Analysis

  • Thai Raws Premiums Finding a Bottom?

    Lunes, 18 Marzo, 2019

    Thai raws physical values have been falling due to oversupply. Until now, producing raws has paid best for mills due to weak refined physical values. If raws values reduce any further, then remelting more raws to refined will become viable. Thailand is expected to have close to 8m tonnes of raw sugar available this season, 30% more than last year and far exceeding demand. Current Expected Thai Raws Supply Read this analysis…

  • Chinese 2018/19 Crop Falling Below Expectation

    Martes, 12 Marzo, 2019

    CSA just released Feb production data which fell below our expectation. We forecast 2018/19 sugar production to be 10.6m tonnes, 200k tonnes lower than previous estimates. With likely increases in imports this season, the reduced production is unlikely to affect the balance and will not increase the need for releasing stock. Chinese Sugar Production Read this analysis…

  • Surprise Offtake from Iran Despite Sanctions

    Martes, 12 Marzo, 2019

    Iran has bought 150k tonnes Indian raw sugar. This is probably an oil-for-food trade to avoid US sanctions; we were not expecting Iran to require sugar imports this season. This is positive for the sugar market as India can export to Iran without displacing another raw sugar origin.   Read this analysis…

  • US Import Changes Increase Mexican World Market Exposure

    Lunes, 11 Marzo, 2019

    Mexican access to the US has been reduced vs the February estimate. This is due to the USDA increasing beet production and reduced ending stocks. Mexico will now have 700k tonnes of available sugar for world market exports this season. Read this analysis…

  • Slow Thai Whites Offtake: Further Surplus

    Lunes, 11 Marzo, 2019

    Demand for Thai whites in January was the slowest in the last 4 years. The low demand is reflected in weak refined premiums. The timing and volume of Myanmar transit licences will be vital for future demand. Read this analysis…

  • Cane availability, are the worries over?

    Viernes, 8 Marzo, 2019

    Rains in CS have improved since 2H of February; Forecast for March currently shows rains could end above historical average; Read this analysis…

  • India Crush Reduced – Still Oversupplied

    Viernes, 8 Marzo, 2019

    We have downgraded our production forecast due to the crush starting to slow down. Export policy changes look unlikely this season and we have therefore reduced our export number. Stocks remain high, so we believe that an export program will be needed next season. Read this analysis…

  • India’s Cane Loans – What Does This Mean For The Market

    Miércoles, 6 Marzo, 2019

    India has just announced full year interest-free loans of up to USD 1.5b; against USD 2.8b cane dues owed. This relieves Indian mills’ cash flow and also pressure for exports; pushing the problem of oversupply down the road. Exports will therefore still be needed in the next season. Read this analysis…

  • Thailand Production – Record Raws Availability

    Miércoles, 6 Marzo, 2019

    We think that Thailand has a record availability of raws sugar this season, eclipsing last season’s record by 30%. This availability results in a 1.9m tonne surplus, of which, we think only 1m tonnes can be carried in country into 2020. We therefore think Thai premiums need to be heavily pressured to ensure increased offtake from Far East destinations. Read this analysis…

  • New Potential Indian Raws Homes

    Martes, 5 Marzo, 2019

    India is seeking preferential access for raw sugar shipped to Indonesia. If approved this could displace Thai and Australian raws. A deal with Korea has also been proposed, but is less likely to go ahead. Indian Stocks are building Read this analysis…

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