News

Sugar and Biofuel market information and resources

VIVE & Bonsucro Alignment – New Developments

Building upon their global collaboration, the VIVE programme and Bonsucro are delighted to announce two significant developments in their working relationship. 
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2016/17: Back-to-Back Deficits

2016/17 is forecast to be in production deficit of 9.8m metric tonnes raw value (mtrv). This follows 2015/16’s 12.5m mtrv deficit, which was the largest seen since 2008/09.
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2015/16: Deeper Sugar Deficit

Global sugar production falls 6.5% in 2015/16, to 174.1m mtrv (metric tonnes raw value). 2015/16 is in deficit by 11.4m mtrv, the second largest production deficit on record.
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2015/16: Brazil Fuels the Deficit

Global sugar production in 2015/16 is forecast to fall by 4% this year to 178.9m mtrv. This is the first meaningful fall in sugar production since 2008/09. The fall in production has been driven by CS Brazil, where wet weather has hampered production, and the EU, where acreage is significantly lower year on year.
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Bonsucro and THRIVE to work together to promote sustainable sugar supply chains

Bonsucro and THRIVE are pleased to announce a global collaboration to help sustainable sugar supply achieve increased scale.
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India in 2015/16: Record Production Expected?

We forecast India could produce a record amount of sugar in the coming season. From 28.6m tonnes in 2014/15 (the previous record in 2006/07 was also 28.6m tonnes), we think production will grow to around 28.9m tonnes. This is a remarkable outcome given that India has been in domestic surplus for the preceding 5 years and domestic prices are 22% lower than they were 12 months ago. The prospect of increasing stocks will also add to the pressure on the government to assist exporters, which could have negative effects for the world market.
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2015/16 – In Deficit?

Global sugar production in 2014/15 was the highest on record, at 187.1m mtrv (metric tonnes raw value). This eclipses the previous high of 185.5m mtrv recorded in 2012/13. This is despite sugar prices falling to multi-year lows. Our first outlook for 2015/16 is that production could be the second highest on record at 186.0m mtrv, though this view is dependent on the CS Brazilian crop. Nevertheless, we calculate the 2015/16 deficit at 1.7m mtrv at this early stage.
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Bhubesi Pride Foundation

Czarnikow is proud to support the Bhubesi Pride Foundation, which encourages the use of sport as a tool for education and development in some of Czarnikow’s key markets in Africa. Please see the video below for more information about the work they do, or alternatively visit their website at http://rugbyinafrica.org/.
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Centre South Brazil 2015/16 Crush: A Record Season?

Centre South (CS) Brazil is the world’s largest cane growing and sugar producing region. It is also the world’s dominant raw sugar supplier. As Northern Hemisphere cane crops draw to a close, market attention is now firmly focussed on CS Brazil and its upcoming harvest. The sugar market is enduring its 4th year of surplus and falling prices. 9 CS Brazilian mills have shut from the previous season, meaning roughly 20% of mills in the region are not operational. Sector debt has increased. Can it really be that CS Brazil could produce a record amount of sugar this year?
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A Final Look at the 2014/15 Season: Strong Production

We’re coming to the end of the 2014/15 season, the fourth successive year of global production surplus, and the market is trading at 6-year lows. That sentence above tells you everything you need to know about where the market has been.
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Balancing the Surplus: A Second Look at the 2014/15 Cycle

2014 has been another year of learning to live with the sugar surplus. 
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Over the Edge? A First Look at the 2014/15 Season

There is a growing perception that the balance sheet might be about to change. 
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Sugar & the Energy Matrix: Why Ethanol is Not Enough

The fall in global sugar prices has meant that today sugar cane has greater value as an energy feedstock than as a food.
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The Inconvenient Truth about Sugar Consumption (it’s not what you think)

The rise in obesity is a problem. And it is being blamed on a rise in the consumption of sugar. However, while global sugar consumption is rising in aggregate, in the developed total world sugar consumption has been surprisingly stable.
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2013/14 in Surplus: A Fourth Look at the Global Balance

The physical surplus in Sugar is proving resilient. Despite longer term concerns over weather risks, in the shorter term the market remains well supplied.
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Surplus Sustained: A Third Look at the 2013/14 Balance

2013 is drawing to a close with a decidedly negative feel to commodity markets. The negative sentiment in the broader commodity markets correlates with a decline in growth rates in the fast growing emerging economies.
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Back on its Feet: A Return to Consumption Growth

We estimate that global sugar consumption has grown by almost 2.5% in 2013. That’s the strongest rate of growth seen in the past four years and approaching the level of consumption growth last seen before the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
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Why A Depressed Price Is Just Not Fair Value

Over the past year we have seen that demand has risen faster than expected.
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A Changing Outlook Confirmed

Sugar futures prices have rallied almost 200pts over the past month as the market has started to recognise that the downward trend in price is now at an end.
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A Tighter Sugar Market: Re-thinking the 13/14 Balance Sheet

Despite the widely held view that prices would fall sharply in 2013 this has not happened to anything like the extent predicted.
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Sugarcane production and water risks; a longer term view

Weather risk in the sugar market is usually seen as coming about when heavy rainfall disrupts crushing – just as we have seen in Brazil this season.
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Still in Surplus? A First Look at the 2013-14 Season

As world market prices fall below production costs we are looking for signs of a response in sugar production and consumption to the new environment.
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Sugar and the Commodity Supercycle

While Asian economies have high growth potential, they will become increasingly in need of the agricultural production of the west.
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Consumption statistics, the production surplus and the market

The surprising thing about the sugar market today is that analysts are in consensus: The balance sheet is in surplus and stock levels are rising.
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Sugar in 2013: Any Change in the Outlook?

At first glance it looks as though sugar will be in for quiet year. However, as prices fall so too does the incentive to produce, while demand will be encouraged by rising affordability.
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A Look Back at 2012

2012 was expected to see a reduction in price. But the sense of risk stayed for longer than expected.
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A renewed emphasis on ethanol for Brazil?

As sugar prices fall Brazil’s cane industry will need to re-invigorate its domestic ethanol market
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Sugar Prices at 20¢/lb - What Happens Now?

Sugar prices are back around 20¢/lb as risk is going out of the sugar balance sheet, helped by rising production and soft demand.
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A Second Look at the 2012/2013 Surplus

The outlook for southern and northern hemisphere sugar production and consumption has changed over the last few months. 
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Running Low On Gas: The Competition For Ethanol Feedstocks

The global ethanol market has grown 400% in the last decade, driven by the United States and Brazil.
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Delays in Brazil: better cane but short term pain

Brazil’s crush is around 50 million tonnes of cane behind last year, following wet weather and planned delays to the crushing season.
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A second year In surplus: an early look at the 2012/2013 balance sheet

High cane and beet prices will drive a 2.4m mtrv (metric tonne raw value) rise in production during the 2012/2013 season.
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Back to surplus, and a return to normality?

The expiry of the May’12 futures contract appears to have finally convinced the market that the sugar balance is now through the deficit period.
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Stalling growth In bio-ethanol demand

After a decade of expansion, bio-ethanol usage fell in 2011 despite a rise in crude oil prices.
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A benign year for Indian sugar

With the world market trading at a premium to production costs, India has been able to export its sugar surplus at remunerative values.
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The 2011/12 sugar surplus arrives

The 2011/12 season will see the sugar market to return to surplus, with the supply side of the balance sheet being the strongest it has been for years.
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